In the year 2020, the US is still the world’s sole superpower, but China is not far behind. Both nations have huge amounts of influence across the globe, and economies that generate enormous wealth. But
What
about their militaries?
If China and the United States were to go to war, who would have the advantage? In this military comparison, we are pitting China’s People's Liberation Army against the United States military to see how they match up. After we lay out the capabilities of each, we’ll decide who would win in an all-out war. Bear in mind that both of these militaries are always changing, so it is important to keep an eye on the future. In the end, it will all come down to which country has the stronger and smarter military.
Let’s see if you come to the same conclusion we do, of who would win a war between China and The United States of America. In terms of resources, China and the United States are both well equipped to support their militaries during a war. It is well known that the United States spends more money than any other country on its military. The most recent military budget for the United States was around 721 billion dollars. That is more than many countries' entire GDP. On the other hand, China’s military budget is around 178 billion dollars.
Notice the huge contrast between the two nations' military spending. Just in pure spending, the United States beat China, but just because a country spends a lot of money, does not mean they have the better military equipment or personnel. Although the United States invest more money in their military, China leads with a different resource, manpower. If all-out war happened the ability to manufacture weapons and replenish casualties would be vital.
The current population of the United States is just over 330 million people. The population of China… around 1.5 billion people. Of course, not everyone in each population would be able to fight or work in factories. But, just in terms of people, China vastly outnumbers The United States. This brings us to the active number of military personnel in each country. Who has the bigger military? Well, it should come as no surprise that the number of soldiers in China’s military is much larger than in the United States. With more people in the country, there are more people in the military. In fact, the number of military personnel in China is almost double the amount of military personnel in the United States.
The U.S. military consists of around 1.3 million personnel on active duty. The People's Liberation Army has just over 2 million military personnel. If war broke out between the two countries, the United States would need to immediately reinstate the draft, just to come close to matching the number of military personnel the People's Liberation Army currently has. Due to the immense size of the Pacific Ocean, a war between China and the United States would most likely not start on land. So, let’s first look at the air force capabilities of each nation, and how they stack up against one another.
The total number of military aircraft the United States has is around 5,370. China’s air force contains about 3,010 planes. But these numbers are always fluctuating as new planes are built and old aircraft are retired. Right now, the Chinese military is building and purchasing aircraft much faster than the United States. It is estimated in a few years the number of aircraft between the two nations will be comparable. But what about the types of aircraft? Which country has better fighter planes, bombers, and transports?
The United States has a vast array of aircraft at its disposal. The most impressive of which is the F-35 Lightning, F-22 Raptor, and F-15 Eagle. These fighter jets help the U.S. maintain air superiority. However, China has its own stealth fighter in the J-20, although it is only available in extremely low numbers and is generally considered a ‘poor man’s version’ of the American F-35. In the air, the American military still retains a lethal advantage over the Chinese military with more sophisticated avionics, a much larger fleet of 5th generation aircraft, and a far greater number of support aircraft such as tankers and AWACS platforms. American pilots also train on average 20-30 hours more per year than their Chinese counterparts, and in more realistic scenarios than the Chinese. As we look at other aspects of the air force in each country, we find that larger aircraft, such as bombers and transports, are not equal.
The United States has a clear advantage. There are two reasons for this. The first is because the United States just has more aircraft. The second reason is that a lot of the money being pumped into the United States military goes to research and development each year. The United States aircraft are up to date, while the Chinese air force is still working with functional, but older models. You don’t need to look much further than the United States’ Boeing B-52 Stratofortress, Northrop B-2 Spirit, and Rockwell B-1 Lancer show that in terms of dominating ground targets from the air, the U.S. has the advantage. Other than the skies, the next most important military technology in a war between China and the United States would be the navy. Controlling the oceans in this conflict would be vital for success. One of the most important ships in a naval arsenal would be the aircraft carrier.
The floating fortresses would be crucial to launching airstrikes on the opposing country. Currently, the United States is the world leader in aircraft carriers. The U.S. has 11 active aircraft carriers, while China only has 2- and only one of those is currently rated as combat-ready. This clearly puts dominance of the ocean in favor of the United States military. But what about other warships? If China could destroy the U.S. aircraft carriers, would they have the advantage? The United States currently has around 430 naval ships on active and reserve duty. However, only about 300 of these ships are currently able to deploy at a moment's notice.
If war broke out between China and the United States right now, China would have a fleet of 335 ships to call upon- but just like is the case for the US, not every ship would be available for combat, with about 20% on each side is currently undergoing maintenance, retrofit, or rest and relaxation for its crews. Without eliminating the US’s aircraft carrier fleet, China would stand no chance of victory in the Pacific if an all-out conflict took place. Yet even with American carriers out of action, China would be extremely hard-pressed to deal with the American submarine fleet. While it has its own fleet of 74 subs vs the US’s 66, China severely lacks in anti-submarine warfare assets and would be ill-equipped to take on America’s silent service.
On the American side, a disastrous performance by its own anti-submarine warfare assets during exercises in the early 2000s revealed a terrible crumbling of the American navy’s capability to wage anti-submarine warfare after the end of the Cold War. Since then, and with the help of ultra-silent diesel submarines from partner nations, the US has undertaken great steps to once again bolster its ASW capabilities and is believed to be well-prepared to face any enemy fleet as the world prepares for great-power competitions once again. For now, the US fleet remains supreme, but it is divided between responsibilities around the world, while China can focus the entirety of its efforts in fighting America’s Pacific fleet alone.
With a rapidly modernizing fleet and more sophisticated shipbuilding efforts, China looks set to close the gap between itself and the US in the approaching decades. What would happen if the war made its way to land though? Obviously, it would depend on where the war was being fought. The nation battling on their home turf would ultimately have the advantage, because of their ability to replenish land forces more easily. Let’s take location out of the equation, and just compare the land-based military capabilities of each nation.
We know that in terms of soldiers, China outnumbers the United States. We also know that if soldier numbers need to be replenished, there are many more people to choose from in China than in the United States. Basically, if the two countries went to war only using soldiers, the United States would eventually succumb to the large number of available manpower China has. That being said, this is not how wars are fought anymore. Instead, land battles can be won using machinery such as tanks. The United States has a tank arsenal of around 8,010 vehicles. The US’s main battle tank is the legendary M1 Abrams, of which not a single one has been lost to enemy action yet. If deployed, the United States tank army would be a devastating force.
It would plow through anything in its path. China has fewer tanks at around 6,560, and just under half of these are first-generation tanks dating back to the early Cold War era. Around 2,360 Chinese tanks are Type 59s. These tanks were produced in the 1950s and ’60s. They are antiquated and currently retired, but still kept in reserve. This means that the tank force of China is actually much smaller than the United States’. The U.S. pours billions of dollars into upgrading their tanks with state-of-the-art equipment and keeping their forces modernized.
Clearly, the United States would decimate China in a tank battle. In today’s day and age battles are rarely only fought on the ground. At some point, they may not even be fought on this planet. Recently, the United States has implemented a new branch of the military, the Space Force. Space Force’s mission is to “organize, train, and equip space forces to protect U.S. and allied interests in space and to provide space capabilities to the joint force.” It is clear that the United States is moving towards militarizing this new horizon, but is China? Recent reports have shown that China has been rapidly expanding its space program.
They were the third country to launch a human into space, behind the former Soviet Union, now Russia, and the United States. China completed this feat back in 2003, and since then have ramped up their space program. They are the first and only country to put a rover on the far side of the moon, where they have made several discoveries. China has also been launching more and more satellites and military spacecraft into space in recent years. It is estimated that China has more than 320 satellites, 105 of which are military in nature. The United States has around 123 military satellites, even though the U.S. has been in space much longer than China. It would seem that the breakthroughs at the China National Space Administration have greatly sped up the military satellite capabilities of the country. The budget for NASA in the United States has been cut year after year, almost immediately after they put the first man on the moon.
China’s space program on the other hand seems to be getting an influx of money each year from the government. How long until the research and development of China’s engineers and space scientists surpass the United States? In space, the country with the best technology, and most knowledge of the environment, will be victorious in battle. If the United States continue to fall behind in space exploration, they will not stand a chance in a space war with China.
This brings us to our last comparison between the two countries. A comparison that has no winner, instead everyone loses. We are talking about nuclear weapons. As of right now, China has an estimated total of 320 nuclear warheads. This may seem like a lot, but it is nothing compared to the number of nuclear weapons the United States has stockpiled.
The United States has about 6,370 nuclear warheads under its control. 2,000 of those nukes are waiting to be dismantled and disposed of. However, if a nuclear war broke out between China and the United States, neither country would get a chance to use all of its nuclear weapons. The human race would be annihilated long before then. So, it is probably in China’s, the United States, and the entire world’s best interest that nuclear war never comes.
Although the United States have a slight military advantage over China, we can’t underestimate how far China’s military has come, in a relatively short amount of time. Also, the vast amount of manpower could be enough to allow China to hold out for a long time, slowly depleting the United States’ resources.
However, the reason we believe that the United States would win a war with China is because of experience. The United States has a lot more military experience than China. This means that the leaders of the military have seen combat, and know what works and what doesn’t. The United States has been at war almost perpetually in one form or another since World War II, most recently in the Middle East. Since the beginning of Desert Storm in 1991, the United States has maintained a military presence in the Middle East.
In fact, the United States has been fighting in Afghanistan for almost 18 years. This means military personnel and leaders have constantly been gaining skills and experience in the art of war. China, on the other hand, has not fought a war in over 40 years. The last war they fought was in 1979 when China invaded Vietnam. Vietnam had just come out of its own civil war and had gained much experience during that time.
The small country was able to humiliate the Chinese military, forcing them out of their country after only three weeks. It seems that experience can outweigh sheer numbers during wartime. It is for this reason that we believe the United States would win a war with China if it were fought today.
However, and some of you may have already seen this coming if China continues to expand and upgrade their military as they have been doing over recent years, it will not be long before their military strength surpasses the United States.
If this happens it is a very real possibility that China would win a war against the United States in the future. Their drive to update their machinery and technology can be seen in their space program and the expansion of their military.
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